Thursday, November 12, 2015

Always on the phone?




Cat Spring


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The Brief: Poll Reveals Tight Cruz/Trump Contest in Texas

by Eleanor Dearman and John Reynolds | Nov. 12, 2015
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz (left) and fellow GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump.

The Big Conversation

Ted Cruz and Donald Trump are running neck and neck for the allegiance of Texas Republicans ahead of next year's presidential primary, according to the latest University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll.
Each man was favored by 27 percent among likely Republican primary voters, as reported by the Tribune's Ross Ramsey. They polled well ahead of the 13 percent support for third-place finisher Ben Carsonand the 9 percent support given Marco Rubio.
Less than four months remain before voters go to the polls in next year's party primary elections. While Cruz, Texas' junior senator, has consistently registered good levels of support in the UT/TT Poll, the big change here is the newfound strength of Trump. In the June edition of the poll, Trump had just 2 percent support.
“The summer of Trump had not started when we did the last poll,” (poll co-director JimHenson said. “He was not really in the race.”
The news isn't good for Jeb Bush, either. The UT/TT Poll found Bush to be the most disliked among the GOP field. Fully 25 percent said they wouldn't vote for the former Florida governor whose family roots in Texas are deep. Ramsey wrote that Bush "was doing especially poorly with Republicans who identify with the Tea Party — the most active voters in the GOP."
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton comfortably leads the field with 61 percent support among likely Democratic primary voters.
Over the next few days, the Tribune will highlight various findings from the UT/TT Poll. Tomorrow will feature attitudes toward various state and federal officeholders.
The University of Texas/Texas Tribune internet survey of 1,200 registered voters was conducted from Oct. 30 to Nov. 8 and has an overall margin of error of +/- 2.83 percentage points. Among registered voters in Republican primary races, the margin of error is +/- 4.21 percentage points; in Democratic primary races, it is +/- 4.57 percentage points.
Disclosure: The University of Texas at Austin is a corporate sponsor of The Texas Tribune. A complete list of Tribune donors and sponsors can be viewed here.




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